Stop with the “it’s early” talk. That’s what bad teams and slumping players say. Yesterday brought the first May ballgames, and we learned a great deal about the season in the first month. Small sample size? No kidding. But these games counted, events occurred that will impact pennant races, and truths were revealed.
So let’s do this. Been going to games, talking to scouts, execs and players. As a sum total of all that, let’s play a game called Five Things April Taught Us About New York Baseball. Here we go, in no particular order:
1. Travis Hafner is not a shot player.
And many scouts suspected he was, after watching him go 9 for 45 in spring training, and combining that with memories of Hafner playing in 100 games or more just once since 2007. Fragility might ultimately prove a problem this year, but there is thunder remaining in this man’s bat.
After Hafner contributed three RBI hits to Tuesday’s win, Joe Girardi started him Wednesday against a lefty, Houston’s Erik Bedard. Girardi did the same on Saturday, when Hafner was in the lineup versus Toronto lefty J.A. Happ.
“I think it depends how many days in a row he’s went,” Girardi said, explaining his decision to play Hafner, who has become an absolutely essential bat in his lineup.
“This will be his fifth day in a row, so I’m OK with that as a DH. If we were in a stretch of 16 days in a row, like we’ve been, and he had played in every one, I probably wouldn’t be OK with it. Five days doesn’t bother me. It’s just kind of watching him and how he’s doing.”
2. Can’t believe I’m about to say it. Just spent three years saying it would never happen. But Bobby Parnell is turning into a good closer.
My question about Parnell, as he enjoyed a strong spring training and mostly effective April (until a big blown save on Monday, but that happens) was this: Can a 28-year-old who seemed to those who knew him to lack the makeup of a closer suddenly develop said makeup? Isn’t it too late to learn the part the you can’t teach anyway? You know, the, uh, guts?
During a Q and A for this space, I asked former Met and MLB Network analyst Cliff Floyd. He said, “You want him to have it by now. But with the stuff Parnell has, when you look at what he’s doing right now, he closer to it. I didn’t think he was ready for it yet; Terry Collins felt he was ready before (Parnell) thought he was ready.”
I also asked Bob Ojeda, and he said — paraphrasing, this one wasn’t tape-recorded — different guys develop confidence at different times. It’s not too late for Parnell, who looks “filthy” this year (that word do I remember Bobby O using).
On this one, we can’t forget to credit Dan Warthen, too. The pitching coach nurtured and retained faith in Parnell during many a dispiriting stretch of games.
3. John Buck is not a star, actually.
The Mets’ new catcher leads the National League in RBI, with 27. That is definitely something. And he is providing valuable leadership in his work with the pitching staff. So we’re not ripping the guy. Just noting that he batted .192 last year, has a .296 on-base percentage this season, and batted .136 over his past seven games. So don’t get too excited, is all.
4. The top three in the Yankees rotation is the real reason they are winning.
It’s weird, because two games into the season, this looked like a big problem. CC Sabathia was slinging mid-to-high 80s fastballs in an Opening Day loss to Boston, leading one scout to say “he just doesn’t put hitters away like he used to.” Uh-oh. And then Kuroda pitched poorly to begin the next game, before taking a line drive off the finger and leaving.
One night later, Andy Pettitte applied a desperately needed tourniquet, beating the Red Sox, avoiding a sweep, and preventing a massive, frantic OMG from rising up in the city. From there, the top three have been doing their thing, combining for an 11-5 record, and 3.16 ERA.
For all the talk about the Replacements around here, the Yankees would be nowhere without Sabathia, Pettite, and especially Kuroda. These guys are the reason we’re even talking about Travis Hafner.
5. Pitching phenoms are volatile, and their futures are not easy to predict.
Yeah, we have known this forever. But it has been the most relevant trope of the Mets’ April. Go back to last spring; Matt Harvey was a future no. 3 and Zack Wheeler was Verlander in training wheels.
Up until Harvey’s final start in Triple-A, virtually no one predicted the show he has staged since. There might not be an evaluator in baseball who was able foretell the way Harvey would reach into himself and find a rare and special gear, once he arrived in the big leagues. Now, people are debating, who would ya rather have, Harvey or Strasburg?
Time to review Wheeler’s last few months. After two dazzling Grapefruit League innings, the phenom strained an oblique muscle. Once able to pitch again, he threw at teammate Aderlin Rodriguez in a spring training intrasquad game, after Rodriquez pimped a home run.
“I don’t think there were many people in the organization happy with Zack,” one team official said of the incident, which led to an argument in the clubhouse that broke down along cultural lines. Both Wheeler and Rodriguez were disciplined.
Soon after, Wheeler went to Vegas, and pitched poorly. John Harper hopped a plane this week to find out why, and Wheeler gave an honest answer about the dry desert air. It would be wrong to criticize a guy for honesty; good for Wheeler for answering the question. But the young man’s comments did not exactly soothe the Mets.
It would be unfair and inaccurate to say that Wheeler’s stock has fallen after one month. It is, however, fair to call him another example of the volatility inherent to predicting how a pitcher will develop. Many people — not just fans, but baseball men charmed by a high-90s fastball and sharp slider — were lulled into thinking this one would be easy.
WANG BIG LEAGUE-READY? GOING BEYOND THE NUMBERS
Chien-Ming Wang declined an opt-out clause in his minor league contract with the Yankees on Wednesday. With Ivan Nova on the disabled list and David Phelps iffy against the Astros Wednesday, Wang has to like his chances of being asked to join the rotation in the near future.
Wang has allowed just two earned runs in 19 innings for Scranton, and the Yankees must determine to what extent that will translate at the major league level. One seasoned scout who has seen Wang pitch well recently did not come away impressed.
“(It was a) cold night, but his fastball velocity was only 87-88, with some sink. Not the Wang of old. Threw strikes, but not impressive for me.”
Mark Feinsand was the columnizer last night, he made good points about the overblown concerns regarding fifth starters. He also believes that Wang can help the Yanks.
Oh, and the Yankees won a sloggy mess against the Astros. McCarron was tasked with describing it.
HOW IMPORTANT WAS THIS METS WIN?
Parnell preserved a one-run lead, and the Mets were not swept by the Marlins. Kristie Ackert was glad to describe it in detail for you.
Was this an essential win for the Mets? Well, no, not if we mean essential to contention. For Terry Collins, though, it was a big deal. As we wrote yesterday, the manager is not at risk for in-season dismissal, but it being evaluated on his handling of a flawed roster.
If this ship sinks to the bottom and stays there, he gone in November. If the team remains interesting makes a strong run at .500, maybe Collins returns. So you gotta beat the Marlins, in other words.
ON THE MOVE AGAIN?
The Phillies seemed maybe sorta ready to roll after sweeping the Mets in New York last weekend, but then the Indians spent the past two nights pounding Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. As Matt Gelb writes in his game story, the Phils are 5-13 in games started by Halladay, Lee and Cole Hamels, and 12-16 overall.
Over the next few months, if the team continues to lose, Lee can expect to at the very least become a midseason trade rumor once again. Dealt twice at the deadline — from Cleveland to Philly in ’09 and from Seattle to Texas in ’10 — Lee will surely draw interest again from teams who consider themselves one pitcher away. He is under contract through 2015, and has a vesting option for 2016, so moving him would be more complicated than in past years.
It is far too early for Phils GM Ruben Amaro to decide whether his team has a shot — but a rival executive who knows Amaro well speculated: “If they’re not in it, you think he won’t move Lee again?”
So keep an eye on that one.
THEY’RE BOTH OFF TODAY
The Yanks and Mets, that is. Let’s all curl up with a book.
