Justin Kubatko is the creator of Basketball-Reference.com, an online basketball encyclopedia. He is also a statistical consultant for the Trail Blazers.
The Los Angeles Clippers’ rookie Blake Griffin has been the breakout star of the first half of the N.B.A. season; clips of Griffin rising for a thunderous dunk or an emphatic block can be seen on a regular basis on “SportsCenter” and YouTube.
But unlike some other highlight reel favorites, Griffin passes both the eye test and the numbers test, combining amazing athletic ability with a statistical résumé that has him on track to be one of the 10 best rookies of the past 30 years.
One of Griffin’s strengths is his ability to combine an above-average scoring rate while also carrying a heavy offensive load, a rare but incredibly value skill.
Over the past 30 years, 41 rookies have led their teams in scoring attempts (a combination of field-goal attempts and free attempts). Griffin would join that list at his current pace, and his rate of 1.10 points per
scoring attempt would place him eighth among that group of players.
Stephen Dunn/Getty Images Blake Griffin is on pace to join the all-time great rookies.Griffin is also an outstanding rebounder, ranking in the top 10 in the N.B.A. in offensive rebound percentage, at 12.5 percent, defensive rebound percentage, 27.4 percent, and total rebound percentage, 20.0 percent. (Rebounding percentage is the proportion of a team’s rebounds a player grabs while on the floor.)
Since 1973-74, when offensive rebounds were first tracked, only eight rookies have finished the season in the top 10 in all three rebounding percentages, the last being Kevin Love in 2008-9.
Griffin’s primary weakness is one that has been shared by many other big men: free throw shooting. He is shooting 59.0 percent from the line, the fourth-worst free throw percentage among qualified players. That figure falls right in line with what he did in college, where he shot 58.9 percent in his two seasons at Oklahoma.
Griffin averages 8.4 free throw attempts per game, the sixth-best figure in the N.B.A., so any significant improvement in his free throw shooting would pay noticeable dividends.
For example, if Griffin were able to increase his free throw percentage to 67 percent — a mark that would still fall well below the league average of 76 percent — his scoring rate would increase from 1.10 to 1.14 points per scoring attempt.
That may not seem like much, but for a player who plays such an active role in his team’s offense it is a meaningful difference. In Griffin’s case, those extra points would be worth about two additional wins over the course of a full season, a number that could easily be the difference between a team making the playoffs or falling into the draft lottery.
Putting it all together, Griffin projects to finish the season with 9.8 win shares, a mark that has been eclipsed by only eight rookies since 1979-80. (Win shares are an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player.)
That’s some heady company. Five of these players are in the Hall of Fame (David Robinson, Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Hakeem Olajuwon), two of them are locks to be selected when they are eligible (Tim Duncan and Shaquille O’Neal), and the remaining one is on pace to be elected (Chris Paul).
Although Griffin’s N.B.A. debut was delayed for a year because of a knee injury, he has proven to be worth the wait. Few rookies have ever played this well, something that should give long-suffering Clippers fans hope for the future.